The Vietnamese have a saying: “30 is not yet year-end celebration.” In football, people often expect surprises in the 90th minute and even in the extra time. Therefore, the Plenum of the party’s Central Committee before the national congress has not yet been able to decide 100% of the congress personnel. There may be surprises.
General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong passed away last August, To Lam replaced him and of course the former police chief also took over the position of Head of the Congress Personnel Subcommittee. This subcommittee is very powerful. This is the filter to choose who to stay for the next term and who to leave for retirement. With the Central Committee’s personnel, the former Minister of Public Security can intervene easily, but with the Politburo’s personnel, he can intervene more difficultly. To intervene, Lam needs to gather a strong enough support force and have enough legitimate reasons.
At the 11th Plenum earlier this month, incumbent Defense Minister General Phan Van Giang was appointed to the position of State President for the next term while General Nguyen Tan Cuong was appointed to the Politburo. It seems that General Cuong holds a 90% chance of becoming next Defense Minister. If Minister of Public Security General Luong Tam Quang is the support for To Lam’s power, then General Nguyen Tan Cuong, when he becomes Defense Minister, has a similar role to General Luong Tam Quang. The To Lam– Phan Van Giang war is beginning to take shape.
With the position of Head of the Personnel Subcommittee, To Lam still cannot stop the progress of Generals Giang and Cuong. To Lam still has 8 months to carry out his plan to prevent it. However, what reason to use to prevent General Cuong from taking the position of Minister is still a difficult problem that To Lam needs to solve within 8 short months.
Removing General Cuong from the restructured list is almost an impossible task, even if it is the powerful To Lam. Because if he wants to remove someone, there must be a legitimate reason, such as a “black record.” However, the law has long prevented the Police from investigating the army. Therefore, General Cuong’s position at the 14th National Congress in January 2026 is quite certain.
In the 2021-2026 term, the Defense Ministry has tw Politburo members. Initially, it was only planned to have Luong Cuong, but then Phan Van Giang joined in and took the Minister position right under Cuong’s nose.
This is a precedent for To Lam to use as a model. It is similar to a “case law.” If hr wants to take the Minister position for the Hung Yen group, he can only put another Hung Yen general into the Politburo and fight with Nguyen Tan Cuong. That person could be Hoang Xuan Chien or Nguyen Hong Thai.
General Giang’s path to building a power ecosystem is taking shape. The direction is clear and the results are almost there. If they maintain this situation for another eight months, the situation will change. However, holding out for eight months is not a small challenge. With overwhelming power, it is not known what new tricks To Lam will launch.
To maintain a monopoly in politics, one must be cunning enough to prevent any other political interest group from growing. Giang’s group is plotting, if To Lam does not eradicate it, the consequences will be unpredictable.
To be able to sit in the chair for more than the limit of two terms, To Lam can learn from Trong. Since taking down Nguyen Tan Dung, Trong has not allowed anyone to build a strong faction to become an equal opponent to him. It is unclear whether To Lam has the same ability as Trong. If General Giang succeeds in carrying out his plan, To Lam will be considered a partial failure.
To pursue power to the end, Giang must enter the Four Pillars and take control of the Defense Ministry. Because only by entering the Four Pillars can he enjoy a special position to continue the game, and by firmly holding the Defense Ministry, he can be assured that no one will remove him. However, that is a big challenge for him. Giang’s path to power is still very precarious.
Thai Ha -Thoibao.de
