The 11th Plenum of the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV)’ Central Committee is a conference that hastily finalized the list of power structures ahead of schedule. Normally, it is not finalized until the 12th Plenum in October, but now General Secretary To Lam has finalized it quite early.
The early finalization of the list has both advantages and disadvantages for To Lam. The most obvious advantage is that the former police chief has put Chinese leader Xi Jinping in a fait accompli position. Internal opinions assess that if the 11th Plenum had taken place as scheduled, that is, after Xi Jinping visits, it would have been considered a disadvantage for To Lam’s faction because Xi has not yet clarified his attitude towards To Lam as he had wholeheartedly supported his precedesor Nguyen Phu Trong before. The early finalization of the list of structures helps To Lam “escape the flood” early.
Some people think that, with the power of splitting bamboo in the political arena, if the factions are allowed to fight for another month before the plenum (assuming Xi Jinping does not intervene), the advantage for To Lam’s faction will be even greater. In the previous two extraordinary plenums, To Lam solidified the strength of the Hung Yen faction by appointing Minister of Public Security General Luong Tam Quang and former Deputy Minister Nguyen Duy Ngoc as Politburo members.
Before finalizing the personnel for the Party Congress, if To Lam had added Tran Luu Quang and Hoang Xuan Chien to the Politburo, it would have been a complete success for the Hung Yen faction. However, To Lam did not get his way with the two guys.
The fact that Tran Luu Quang was not nominated to the Politburo means that incumbent Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh is still secure his position. Initially, To Lam’s intention was to put Tran Luu Quang into the Politburo before the Congress to replace Pham Minh Chinh as the government leader, but it seems that the plan has failed. It is possible that Tran Luu Quang cannot enter the Politburo at the 14th National Congress, let alone the ambition of the PM’s position.
The fact that Hoang Xuan Chien was not appointed to the Politburo and was replaced by Nguyen Tan Cuong shows that To Lam’s plan to Hung Yenize the army has initially failed.
In the fierce arena, the failure of one person will surely lead to the success of another. The fact that Hoang Xuan Chien lost to Nguyen Tan Cuong also reflects the situation between To Lam’s faction and Defense Minister Phan Van Giang’s faction in the army. Phan Van Giang’s faction is winning at this 11th plenum. From this victory, the emerging military power branch police power branch.
It is now April, and there are still 8 months until the party’s National Congress slated in January 2016. So the question is, is there any chance for To Lam’s faction to tear up the “sharing contract” of the 11th Plenum to replace it with another contract?
It is very likely that To Lam wants to add a few more extraordinary plenums to redistribute the cake, however, this ambition will not be easy to achieve because the current “contract” is satisfying the majority, except To Lam. Perhaps the strong defenders of this contract are General Phan Van Giang and PM Pham Minh Chinh. Former PM Nguyen Tan Dung is also very satisfied with this “contract” because Nguyen Van Nen will withdraw and his son Nguyen Thanh Nghi will be replaced.
The Politburo currently has 17 members. According to the “contract of division,” five must retire namely: Luong Cuong, Nguyen Hoa Binh, Nguyen Xuan Thang, Nguyen Van Nen. Six new faces will be added. These are: Nguyen Tan Cuong, Le Thanh Long, Ho Duc Phoc, Tran Hong Ha, Bui Thanh Son, and Nguyen Thanh Nghi. Thus, with currently 17 members, withdrawing 5 and adding 6, the total will be 18 Politburo members, equal to the number of Politburo members from the beginning of the 13th term. Breaking this complete framework to add Tran Luu Quang and Hoang Xuan Chien is very difficult. Will To Lam tear up the old and establish the new in 8 months? Wait and see!
Tran Chuong -Thoibao.de
